Algorithmic analysis only — not financial or wagering advice. For informational purposes.
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ATP Tour match probability analysis. Updated daily. No wagering facilitated.
ATP Tour Intelligence

Court knowledge.
Model precision.

ATP Tour match probability analysis. Calibrated against real outcomes. Every prediction logged publicly.

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Prediction Accuracy
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Correct / Total
60%
Launch Target
ATP
Tour Only · No WTA
Today's Top Pick
ATP Tour
Top pick publishes at 6am ET
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Prediction Accuracy
—
Correct / Total
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W / L Record
60%
Accuracy Threshold
ATP
Tour Only · No WTA
Algorithm
5-Factor ATP Model
Surface Coverage
Clay · Hard · Grass
Data Source
API-Tennis via RapidAPI
How It Works
The Algorithm
Factor model · Live ATP data · Isotonic calibration · Weights proprietary
See Today's Analysis →
★★★
Surface Elo
Per-surface rating updated after every ATP match. Clay, Hard, Grass rated independently with K-factor time decay.
★★★
SPW / RPW
Quality-adjusted weighted average serve & return points won on current surface. Opponent Elo weighted for strength of schedule.
★★☆
H2H Window
Surface-specific head-to-head with exponential recency weighting. Redistributes to Elo/SPW when no H2H exists.
★☆☆
Fatigue Index
7-day window validated by R regression. Sets and games weighted — significantly more predictive than 30-day window.
★☆☆
Surface Switch
Penalty for players transitioning surfaces. Burns off after 4 matches. Critical Grand Slam edge identifier.
Factor weighting is proprietary and subject to ongoing calibration. Stars indicate relative contribution — not fixed percentages.
Today's Card
Highest Conviction Predictions
Top model signals from today's analysis run — ranked by confidence score. Unlock for full probability breakdown.
Full Analysis →
🎾 Today's top edges appear here at 6am ET when the model publishes picks.
About the Model

Court knowledge meets quantitative rigor.

Junior · College · Pro 6 Years ATP Data 5-Factor Model Isotonic Calibration ATP Tour Only

Built by someone who has competed at the junior, college, and professional level — and who also built the quantitative model from scratch. Factor model trained on live ATP match data. Calibrated against real outcomes.

Most analytics are either pure numbers with no read on the game, or pure feel with nothing to back it up. This is both — calibrated against real outcomes, tracked publicly, no cherry-picking.

Prediction accuracy is the only metric that matters. Every published pick is logged, and the results speak for themselves.

Match Probability Analysis · ATP Only
Today's Card
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ℹ️
Algorithmic probability analysis — not picks advice. The Lob Report publishes ATP probability model output for informational purposes. All figures represent model probabilities and do not constitute financial advice of any kind.
ATP Tour · Top 100
Player Profiles
Surface Elo · SPW/RPW · Fatigue · Algorithm stats · Updated June 2026
Transparency · Full History
Track Record
Every prediction logged. No cherry-picking. Wins, losses, and skips all shown.
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Prediction Accuracy
— correct of — resolved predictions
ATP Tour only · Every pick logged publicly · No retroactive edits
Calibration — Model Confidence vs. Actual Outcome Rate
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A well-calibrated model means 65% confidence predictions win ~65% of the time. The dashed line shows perfect calibration. Bars show actual outcome rate per confidence bucket.
ATP Tour Only · All Published Predictions
Correct Incorrect Pending
DateMatchSurfaceModel PickConfidenceResult
Prediction Accuracy—
Accuracy = correct predictions ÷ resolved predictions. Fades and skips excluded from accuracy calculation.
Subscribe · ATP Intelligence
Choose Your Access
Pay per tournament or grab the Season Pass · ATP Tour only · No WTA
Tournament Calendar →
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Prediction Accuracy
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Correct / Total
60%
Accuracy Threshold
ATP
Tour Only · No WTA
🏆Founding Member Program · Limited Time
25% off Season Pass
Lock in the founding rate on the Season Pass for the 2026–27 ATP season. First 25 subscribers get 25% off automatically — no code needed.
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spots left
of 25 founding spots
Courtside
Full match probability analysis, early access before lines move, and raw model data for serious analysts.
from $15 /tournament
or $349 season pass
  • All daily ATP picks for the tournament
  • Full model breakdown per pick
  • Confidence score + conviction rating
  • Skip cards with model reasoning
  • Pentagon radar chart per match
  • Early pick access at 6am ET
  • Raw model output — probabilities, edge %, CI
  • Weekly model performance breakdown email
Tournament Type
Courtside
ATP 250
ATP 250
2–3 day tournament coverage
$15
ATP 500
ATP 500
3–4 day tournament coverage
$22
Masters 1000
Masters 1000
5–7 day tournament coverage
$35
Grand Slam
Grand Slam
Full 2-week Slam coverage
$50
Season Pass
All 2026–27 ATP events · 12 months from purchase · Best value
$349
$262 founding
⚠️
ATP Tour Only — No WTA Coverage
The Lob Report covers ATP Tour matches exclusively. Our algorithm covers ATP Tour matches only. WTA coverage is not available and is not planned at launch.
ℹ️
Informational Purposes Only
The Lob Report publishes algorithm-generated ATP match probability analysis. All content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Surface and fatigue data may be incomplete or delayed. The model is not infallible and predictions should not be treated as certainties.
2026–27 ATP Season
Tournament Calendar
Buy access to any tournament · Analysis publishes at 6am ET daily · Courtside access
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