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ATP Live
📈 87.5% win rate at Roland Garros 2026. Paper trading threshold: 55% before launch.
Roland Garros 2026 · R16 · Clay

Smarter
ATP
Picks.

5-factor algorithm — Surface Elo, weighted H2H, fatigue modeling, isotonic calibration. Every pick backed by data the books don't price correctly.

ℹ️ Informational only. We publish algorithm analysis. We do not facilitate wagering. All picks are for entertainment and research purposes only.
87.5%
RG 2026 Rate
14/16
Picks Correct
55%
Launch Threshold
ATP
Tour Only
Top Pick · RG R16
Lines Live
🇧🇷 Fonseca
BRA · Seed 28
vs
Ruud 🇳🇴
NOR · Seed 15
✓ Bet It
Pick: Fonseca +200
Edge: +10-14% · Confidence: 74/100
Ruud Fatigue
78/100
H2H Clay
First ever
Fonseca Age
19 — fast recovery
Ruud 5-setters
Twice this RG
87.5%
RG 2026 Win Rate
+9.8%
Avg Model Edge
14/16
Picks Correct
55%
Launch Threshold
ATP
Tour Only · No WTA
How It Works
The Algorithm
5 factors · Sackmann ATP data 2021–2026 · Isotonic calibration · Exponential decay
See Picks →
50%
Surface Elo
Per-surface rating updated after every ATP match. Clay, Hard, Grass rated independently with K-factor time decay.
25%
SPW / RPW
Quality-adjusted weighted average serve & return points won on current surface. Opponent Elo weighted for strength of schedule.
15%
H2H Window
Surface-specific head-to-head with exponential recency weighting. Redistributes to Elo/SPW when no H2H exists.
5%
Fatigue Index
7-day window validated by R regression. Sets and games weighted — significantly more predictive than 30-day window.
5%
Surface Switch
Penalty for players transitioning surfaces. Burns off after 4 matches. Critical Grand Slam edge identifier.
Algorithm Output · ATP Only
Today's Card
Roland Garros R16 · June 1 2026 · Clay · 6 matches analyzed
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For informational & entertainment purposes only. The Lob Report publishes algorithm analysis and does not facilitate wagering. All picks represent model output, not financial advice. You may use this information however you choose and are solely responsible for any decisions made.
Tools · Informational
Parlay Builder
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ATP Tour · Top 100
Player Profiles
Surface Elo · SPW/RPW · Fatigue · Algorithm stats · Sackmann data 2021–2026 · Updated June 2026
Transparency · Full History
Track Record
Every pick logged. No cherry-picking. Wins, losses, and skips all shown.
Roland Garros 2026 · ATP Tour Only · Live Paper Trading
Win Loss Pending
DateMatchSurfacePickOddsEdgeConfResultP&L
Live Paper Trading Win Rate87.5% (14/16) · Launch threshold: 55%
Backtest result: 52% post bug-fix → Bayesian optimization in progress → Target: 58% backtest → then 55% live paper trading threshold triggers launch
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87.5%
RG 2026 Win Rate
14/16
Picks Correct
55%
Launch Threshold
58%
Backtest Target
ATP
Tour Only · No WTA
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The Lob Report covers ATP Tour matches exclusively. Our algorithm is trained on ATP data only (Sackmann dataset 2021–2026). WTA coverage is not available and is not planned at launch.
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The Lob Report does not facilitate, accept, or process any wagers. All algorithm picks are published for informational and entertainment purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or betting advice. By subscribing, you acknowledge these are informational analysis picks based on ATP model predictions. You may use this information however you choose. We are not responsible for any financial losses. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Must be 21+ where wagering is legal. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.